Naxis

Frequently asked questions

We get asked lots of questions and the following list reflects the most frequently asked. Maybe this will help.

What is the final outcome of the NAXIS System and in what format does it appear?
Answer: On the principal there are just two impacts on every consumer purchase, either man-made (economic impacts) or natural, the NAXIS System identifies, measures and forecasts natural consumer desire. (The natural impact). The outcome can be in actual sales/footfall forecast or as +/- percentage of (cleaned from man-made impacts) average daily sales.

How long in the future can the NAXIS System forecast?
Answer: Short term forecasts are; daily rolling 1-15 days ahead. Long term planning uses a different methodology to identify exact start dates and end dates for “seasonal” products. Using statistical probability and cost of stock, the NAXIS System computes the ultimate date when you need to have stock on shelf and the ultimate date when there should be zero stock. Incorporating the short term forecasting system with the long term planning system will maximise sales and control mark down at end of “seasons”.

How can I transfer my sales data from my system to the NAXIS System?
Answer: Currently, transfer is by uploading .csv files. Data within Excel files can easily be saved as .csv (no headings, just date column, yyyy-mm-dd, and sales data column). The NAXIS Sytem will prompt you to upload files. In the future the system will also use xml transfer and copy/paste from Excel.

What information do I need to enter in the tick-boxes?
Answer: The object with tick-boxes is to separate man-made data from natural data. There is a drop down prompt list to help you. You will need to click on a tick box against dates for things like Bank Holiday weekends (Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday), Easter you will need to click on Maundy Thursday as well. Most food and drink products the system will automatically check these boxes as well as Christmas from 19th December to 3rd January. Other dates will be 2 days before and Valentines day, 2 days before and Mothers day. Other dates you will have to consider are dates the product is on promotion, major sporting events when your international teams are playing. Once this basic information has been checked the system will calculate and then prompt you with specific dates and other reasons for anomalies. When you can’t explain anymore the system will complete the last calculation to produce the final model.

Can I use the NAXIS System for countries other than the UK?
Answer: At present the NAXIS System is for the UK only, however if anyone would like capability for other countries, please contact us and we will arrange for specific countries to be added. Later this year we will be adding European countries, USA and Canada.

How accurate is the demand forecast system?
Answer: At the heart of the NAXIS System is a robust forecasting algorithm built specifically for us by a Chartered Statistician. Within the NAXIS System, when the initial process has been completed, the system will provide a standard error for each product or footfall model. The accuracy will depend on individual products. Some products are much more sensitive to natural impact than others. Many short-life, fresh produce/products and those low in carbohydrates have standard errors less than 2.5%. Similarly many, long life products and those high in carbohydrates also have very low standard errors. Of course natural instinct affects consumer desire more on Friday Saturday and Sunday (“leisure time”) but two of the important sales days, more than the rest of the week which is considered “work time”.

How can the NAXIS System help reduce my staff costs?
Answer: There is a high correlation between the number of customers entering store and the NAXIS Index. The NAXIS System can accurately forecast the number of customers expected, 1-15 days ahead. To maximise your customer service levels, you can match the number of expected customers with the optimum number of staff.

How do I solve the last 50m shelf replenishment problem?
Answer: Using the NAXIS System short term (1-15 days ahead) forecast to identify customer numbers and plan optimum staffing levels as Q7. As in Q6 there are products which are more sensitive to natural impacts than others, some highly positive and some highly negative. E.g. salad products are highly positive because sales are greater when the NAXIS Index is higher, and soup products are highly negative because sales are greater when the NAXIS Index is lower. The forecast NAXIS Index will show (1-15 days in advance) whether it will be positive or negative products which will have greatest sales. By producing two priority-pick lists, one for positive products and one for negative products in order of their sensitivity. With the right number of staff you will then have the ability to make sure the right products are replenished on shelf at the right time when they will be desired.

Why do I need 2 years sales data?
Answer: Our experience over the past 10 years shows that this is the optimum amount of data necessary to produce an accurate forecast model. More than two years data usually incorporates significant changes to store profiles and product ranges. And less than two years data, when “cleaned” leads to insufficient data for accurate analysis.

What is the NAXIS Index?
Answer: The NAXIS Index is a measure of consumer desire. Standard forecast demand models use observed consumer behaviour (historical sales). When consumer desire is greater than the standard model out of stocks occur. When consumer desire is less than the standard forecast demand model, over stocks and waste occurs. It was this concept which led our research to develop an understanding of consumer desire. The NAXIS Index is based on our natural instinct which in turn drives consumer desire.

If you would like answers to your own questions, make comments or would like to make your own suggestions, please submit your request via our 'Comment' page and we will get back to you within the next 48 hours.